chart, list price and days to sell

Las Vegas Chart 2018 to 2023

As the Las Vegas real estate market continues to see fluctuations, home buyers and sellers are on the edge of their seats, watching the latest stats and trends with anticipation. According to recent data, the market has seen a significant decline since June 2022, with the median home price dropping from $480K to $425K.

While this may seem like a cause for concern, experts say that the drop in home prices may actually, be a good thing for buyers who have been hesitant to enter the market due to high prices in recent years. However, sellers have been reluctant to make large reductions in home prices, resulting in a stalemate between the two parties.

Despite this, the market has seen some positive changes in recent months. In March 2023, the median home price remained steady at $425K, while the months of inventory appear to be dropping significantly to an estimated 1.9 months. This can be attributed to multiple reasons. One possibility is there may be an increase in demand for homes in the area, due to the spring buying season, which is leaving fewer homes available. Another reason is that may Sellers may be hesitant to put their homes on the market due to market uncertainty or other economic factors. Such as they have a 2.5% interest rate, and they don't want to sell and buy something else with a 7% interest rate or simply cannot afford to do so. In any case, seeing home supply going lower, could result in a more competitive market, especially in the affordability zone between $300k and $400K. The Median Household income in Las Vegas is roughly $61K, according to the census bureau.

In the past 5 years, the average closing (sold price) price vs the average listed price deviates only slightly, up or down. The highest is 101.5% in June of 2021 and the lowest in 5 years is in January of 2023, sitting at 98.2%.

Close price to list price ratio

Experts predict that the market will continue to see fluctuations in the coming months:

  • Moody's Investors Service says "Don't expect a rebound soon". They say it is "likely increases in unemployment and a US recession later this year will additionally pressure sales and prices." On a national basis, they stated they expected to see home prices decline about 4% in both 2023 and 2024.

  • KPMG makes a bold housing call too, according to KPMG home prices could fall by another 20%. According to economist Yelena Maleyev, who is quoted stating the downward trend could just be getting started. Her main point is the destabilization in the market that has occurred thanks to rising mortgage rates which have more than doubled in the last year, while home prices hit record highs, resulting in significant demand.

  • Morgan Stanley analysts are forecasting something worse than the Great Financial Crisis for Commercial Real Estate. This is because more than 50% of the 2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points. She also notes that even more alarmingly regional banks account for 70% to 80% of all new loan originations of commercial loans in the past cycle. With all eyes on the banking crisis of regional small banks, this could be the tip of the iceberg. All this according to Lisa Shallett, the chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

 

Many times in real estate there are multiple scenarios playing out. It's important for both buyers and sellers to stay informed and up-to-date on the latest trends and statistics. Whether you're a first-time buyer or a seasoned seller, understanding the market can help you make informed decisions and achieve your goals. It's important to conduct your own research and due diligence before making any financial decisions. The information provided in this context is not intended to be financial advice, and should not be taken as such. It's also important to keep in mind that the horizon is always shifting, and market conditions can change rapidly. Feel free to reach out to me at any time if you have any questions about the Las Vegas Real Estate Market. I am happy to provide updated statistics and market reports to help you understand the constantly evolving marketplace.